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TIME: Almanac 1990
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1990 Time Magazine Compact Almanac, The (1991)(Time).iso
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1990-09-17
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WORLD, Page 36MIDDLE EASTInch by Inch, Step by StepIn dealing with Shamir, Bush tries patient incrementalism
Well, expectations were low. So, few were surprised when the
latest round of Middle East diplomacy in Washington last week
produced little measurable progress, though many were disappointed.
Not, however, Yitzhak Shamir. Determined to resist any American
effort to press him into major negotiations or concessions, the
Israeli Prime Minister told journalists flying with him to the
U.S., "I am immune to pressure." So he was. For the Israeli
delegation, the absence of any public breach between the two
nations during two days of talks was itself a victory. Shamir had
feared that President Bush might push an international peace
conference, which he had cautiously endorsed during earlier
meetings last week with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. And
Shamir was deeply aggrieved by another Bush pronouncement, urging
Israel to end its "occupation" of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
After the talks, Bush wound up lending qualified support to the
one modestly promising part of Shamir's four-point proposal:
allowing Palestinians in the occupied territories to elect
representatives to negotiate with Israel for some limited "interim"
self-rule, as promised more than a decade ago in the Camp David
accords. While Shamir again repeated that Israel would never leave
those areas, Bush did insist that the U.S. regards any such
negotiations as just a first step toward a settlement. But Shamir
felt his basic objectives were satisfied. "The Americans certainly
don't agree with all of our policies," said an Israeli official.
"But," he added, sounding relieved, "they realize they must work
with us. We consider that a success."
Shamir's proposed elections come heavily, perhaps fatally,
encumbered. He said the Palestinians must first stop their violent
16-month-old uprising, the intifadeh. Shamir also refused to
countenance international supervision of the balloting, despite
gentle prodding from Secretary of State James Baker, and rejected
direct participation by the Palestine Liberation Organization,
which the Arabs in the occupied territories already consider their
legitimate representative.
Still, Bush said the U.S. would now work with Israel and the
Palestinians to reach "a mutually acceptable formula for
elections." U.S. officials express hope that such steps can lead
to a substantive dialogue between the two parties in the dispute.
But they were disappointed that the stubborn Shamir had not
displayed enough change "in nuance and tone" to spark some real
peace momentum. Despite Administration prodding, Shamir refused to
outline what steps he might take toward reducing Israeli brutality
against Palestinian demonstrators, such as lifting economic
sanctions, reopening schools and putting an end to the demolition
of houses. Shamir feels he can afford to be inflexible.
Politically, he has never been stronger. Although last November's
elections produced a stalemate, he outmaneuvered his rivals and now
exercises almost complete control over foreign policy.
Diplomatically, his Washington trip left behind at least a faint
impression that Israel was taking some initiative.
As expected, P.L.O. Chairman Yasser Arafat swiftly denounced
Shamir's proposals, calling them "inappropriate, as usual," and
many Palestinians in the occupied territories followed suit. In
Jerusalem on Friday, the first day of the month-long Ramadan
observance, hundreds of Palestinians pouring out of midday prayer
services at the al Aqsa mosque on the Temple Mount launched an
angry demonstration, throwing rocks and chanting anti-Israeli and
anti-American slogans.
To the Bush Administration, such protests are not necessarily
all bad. Rather than pressure Shamir directly, Bush's top advisers
seem content to let the intifadeh do it for them. "We can let the
uprising proceed, let the pressures continue to work on public
opinion in Israel and the United States," explains a senior Bush
adviser, "and try to channel those pressures in constructive
directions." So for the time being, the Administration feels that
the best policy is one of patient incrementalism. "The President
does not believe conditions now exist for making peace, but he
would like to see those conditions fostered, step by step," said
the U.S. official. "Time is on our side." That, however, may mean
years -- and a change in Prime Ministers.